Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
