A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
